Golden State faces its biggest test yet
The Golden State Valkyries have one game to keep their playoff run alive after the Dallas Wings turned a comfortable series into a winner-take-all showdown.
Game 3 returns to Chase Center on Friday night, with the winner moving into the WNBA semifinals to face the defending champion Las Vegas Aces. Golden State entered the series as the No. 2 seed, while Dallas came in as the No. 7 seed.
Expert predictions have generally leaned toward the Valkyries, largely because of their home-court record and defensive strength. Several analysts expect Golden State to regain control after an unusually high-scoring Game 2.
Game 2 changed everything
Golden State appeared to be heading toward a quick series after winning Game 1 by 24 points, 104-80. The Valkyries controlled the game from the start and built a lead of as many as 36 points.
Dallas responded with one of the wildest performances of the postseason.
Arike Ogunbowale scored 45 points in Game 2, setting a WNBA playoff record, as the Wings erased an early deficit and won 108-100 in overtime. Her performance included a late three-pointer that forced overtime and kept Dallas’ season alive.
That result has made Game 3 much more difficult to predict, even though Golden State remains the favorite among several experts.
Why experts are leaning toward the Valkyries
The biggest argument for Golden State is its defense. The Valkyries allowed just 75.1 points per game during the regular season, the best mark in the league, while their defensive rating was also the WNBA’s best.
Home court adds another major factor. Golden State went 17-5 at home during the regular season, and the team has consistently played with greater defensive pressure at Chase Center.
CBS Sports analysts Lindsay Gibbs and Jack Maloney both projected an 84-70 Golden State victory. Other published predictions have also favored the Valkyries, with one projection calling for an 84-74 final.
Can Dallas repeat its Game 2 formula?
That is the central question heading into the decider.
Ogunbowale’s 45-point explosion was historic, but Dallas also received 21 points from Alysha Clark and 13 from Aziaha James. The Wings also benefited from 37 free-throw attempts and several difficult three-point shots.
Golden State coach Natalie Nakase acknowledged that her team needed to defend more intelligently after allowing 108 points. The Valkyries will need to avoid giving Dallas easy trips to the foul line while finding a better way to limit Ogunbowale without leaving other scorers open.
Paige Bueckers adds another layer
Paige Bueckers remains one of Dallas’ most important offensive pieces, but Game 2 showed how quickly the Wings can change their approach when opponents concentrate heavily on her.
Golden State successfully limited some of Bueckers’ impact, yet Ogunbowale took advantage of the attention and carried Dallas instead. The Valkyries now face a difficult choice: stay committed to containing Bueckers or devote more defensive resources to Ogunbowale after her record-setting night.
What the experts expect
| Factor | Golden State | Dallas |
| Series record | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Game 1 | Won 104-80 | Lost 104-80 |
| Game 2 | Lost 100-108 OT | Won 108-100 OT |
Most expert projections point toward a lower-scoring game than Wednesday’s overtime shootout. The common theme is that Golden State’s defense should return to its regular-season identity, while Dallas will need another huge performance from its backcourt to pull off the upset.
FAQ
When is Valkyries vs. Wings Game 3?
Game 3 was scheduled for Friday, October 2, at 9 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco.
Who did experts predict to win Game 3?
The published CBS Sports predictions from Lindsay Gibbs and Jack Maloney both selected Golden State, with each projecting an 84-70 Valkyries victory.
What does the winner advance to?
The winner of Game 3 advances to the WNBA semifinals against the Las Vegas Aces.
